ASML Posts Record Q3 2026 Results and Raises Full-Year Outlook

The Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier ASML Holding N.V. (ISIN: NL0010273215) has reported its results for the third quarter of 2026 and, thanks to strong demand from the field of artificial intelligence, met expectations at the upper end of its own guidance for revenue and gross margin. Net sales rose to 11.66 billion euros, while management simultaneously raised its full-year revenue forecast and confirmed the payment of the second interim dividend for the current financial year.

Strong margin and special effect on quarterly profit

In addition to the high quarterly revenue, ASML exceeded expectations particularly in terms of profitability: the gross margin came in at 57.5 percent, above its own forecast range of 54 to 55 percent. The main driver was high-margin service and upgrade revenue from customers' existing installed base of machines. Reported net profit amounted to around 4.96 billion euros (earnings per share: 12.95 euros). For investors, one special item in the financial result is relevant: the profit includes an unrealized revaluation gain of around 500 million euros from the stake in Mistral AI, which means the increase in operating profit must be assessed with due differentiation.

Outlook raised on AI supercycle

For the fourth quarter of 2026, ASML expects net sales between 14.2 billion and 15.2 billion euros and a gross margin of around 57 percent. On this basis, the full-year outlook was adjusted to 44.0 billion to 45.0 billion euros, which corresponds to revenue growth of around 36 percent compared with the previous year. Customer groups in the memory and logic segments are already securing delivery slots for 2029 and 2030. Management is therefore examining options to expand production capacity beyond the previously planned expansion steps starting in 2028.

Dividend and billion-euro share buybacks

ASML is continuing its shareholder-friendly distribution policy. The company is paying an interim dividend of 1.88 euros per ordinary share for the second quarter of 2026. The ex-dividend date on Euronext is October 26, 2026, and the payment date follows on November 4, 2026. In addition, ASML repurchased around 2.8 million of its own shares in the third quarter as part of its ongoing buyback program for about 4.1 billion euros.

Geopolitical dynamics in the China business

On the market side, there was a noticeable shift in regional revenue: in the third quarter, China's share of system revenue rose to 23 percent, compared with 14 percent in the previous quarter. This was due to increased purchases by Chinese customers of DUV systems (Deep Ultraviolet). For the full year, ASML expects China's share to be around 20 percent. Against the backdrop of potential US export restrictions, this market remains a significant risk factor for investors.

ASML underscores its global monopoly position in EUV lithography with these figures and remains a key company in the global semiconductor and AI sector. For shareholders in the EURO STOXX 50, reliable capital returns are combined with long-term growth opportunities, while geopolitical restrictions in the China business should be closely monitored.